Players who will be undervalued come draft day

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Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri- Sheldon Richardson hasn’t gotten as much pre-draft hype as the other defensive lineman in his class. He is generally looked at as a top 25 pick but I could see Richardson going into the top 10 this year. Many people, including myself, thought that Richardson is better than Star Lotulelei and is on par with the best defensive tackle in this draft class in Sharrif Floyd.
Jonathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia- Sticking with defensive tackles, Johnathan Jenkins was one of many players who saw his draft stock decline greatly after playing Alabama in the SEC championship game. Before the game he was considered as the top or second best defensive lineman in the draft. Because of his versiltlity to lineup as a 1-3 in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme he should remain in the first round possibly in the top 25.
Cornelius Washington, ILB/DE, Georgia- Cornelius Washington is one of my favorite sleepers coming out of this year’s draft. His size and athleticism is something that has some scouts talking and after watching some games of his, he really stood at more than one would thought, especially on a defense that already consisted of other great defensive players like the two Jenkins and Ogletreee. He is projected to be a mid-round pick this year but I feel like whichever team can get him in the 3rd round will be getting a steal.

Blacker

DaMontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M – He had a poor combine showing and he also had a poor showing at his pro day ,the 4.95 40 is not impressive. However, I believe this is a case of scouts looking to far into his numbers and forgetting about the havoc Moore caused in the SEC last year.  When you watch the tape Moore makes plays, he has a high motor, is versatile as a 43 DE and a 34 OLB, as well as anchors well in the run game.  Moore should be a first round draft pick but his poor showing could cost him the first round pick.  Regardless, whatever team grabs him in the 2nd round will be gaining a steal and a talented threat coming off the edge.

Players who will be overvalued come draft day

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Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB, LSU- I have never been a big fan of Mingo and Montgomery. He is small and was constantly bullied by some of the SEC’s offensive lineman. Luke Joeckel bullied both of these guys in the LSU/Texas A&M match up this past season, and at times their presence was just not felt at all.
T.J. McDonald, S, USC- I know McDonald is being projected as a 3rd to 4th round pick but in my opinion he should not even be looked at until the later rounds on the third day or shouldn’t even be selected in the at all. McDonald is the next Taylor Mays, a USC player who gets overvalued and falls flat once he reaches the Pros. He was the mastermind behind most of the USC defensive woes and his game against Oregon was probably the worst safety performance I’ve ever seen from a college safety.

Blacker

The trend in the recent years for the NFL is to reach for a QB that think can turn around the team’s fortunes. I don’t think that we see any deviation from the trend here. I expect Geno Smith, EJ Manuel and/or Ryan Nassib, to be highly overvalued come draft day. Especially if a team like Jacksonville decides to take Geno at 2. That would set off a domino effect and teams like Buffalo, Arizona, New York and Philadelphia could become desperate and reach for Manuel or Nassib.  I am a firm believer that none of the aforementioned QB’s warrant a first round selection but the need for an elite signal caller could lead to those 3 QBs to be overvalued.

 

Player who sneaks into the 1st round

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EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State- Manuel is my favorite quarterback prospect coming out of this year’s draft, his had a good week at the senior bowl in the eyes of many scouts despite many reports by “Draft Experts” (I’m looking at you Mayock), and he has gained some draft stock momentum in recent weeks. I could see him going in the bottom of the first to a team that trades back up into the first round to nab one a QB.

Blacker

Dj Hayden CB Houston – The kid has an amazing story, almost died in practice due to a tear in his heart. Comes back from the near death experience and runs a 4.3 40.  Hayden also faced off against talented WR Quinton Patton and shut him down. Hayden posses prototypical CB size at 5’11 191. Personally I don’t see anything that makes Hayden any more special than other CB’s like Trufant, Millner or Rhodes but scouts and NFL GM’s like him and love the story and that should be enough to push him to the late first.

 

Player who slip in the draft

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Keenan Allen, WR, California- As much as I love Keenan Allen as a prospect, his stock has dramatically decreased since early January. His knee injury kept him out of the scouting combine in February and when he was finally able to run at his Pro Day, he only ran a 4.7. Scouts had already questioned his speed as there times where faster defensive backs easily caught Allen from behind.

Blacker

Bjorn Werner DE Florida  State, – Jarvis Jones will fall due to health concerns but also they should be picked right about where they belong.  Werner is a top 15 talent and the best pure 43 DE in the draft but with Tampa trading the pick for Revis and the possibility of the Titans taking OL help. Every other pick after that has other needs than a 43 DE. IF teams decide to draft by need and not BPA, Werner could take a spill to the 20’s.

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Not really a detailed draft compared to our previous mock drafts, but I’ve been more busy then usual this year so I haven’t had a much time to crack out these mocks and scouting reports. I’m going to have more time to get more reports out after finials.

-Black

Kansas City (2-14) – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

Jacksonville (2-14) – Dion Jordon, DE/OLB, Oregon

Oakland (4-12) – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Philadelphia (4-12) – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Detroit (4-12) – Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

Cleveland (5-11) – Dee Millner, CB, Alabama

Arizona (5-11) – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

Buffalo (6-10) – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

New York Jets (6-10) – Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah

Tennessee (6-10) – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

San Diego (7-9) – Johnathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

Miami (7-9) – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Tampa Bay (7-9) – Xavier Rhodes*, CB, Florida State

Carolina (7-9) – Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

New Orleans (7-9) – Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

St. Louis (7-8-1) – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

Pittsburgh (8-8) – Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

Dallas (8-8) – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

New York Giants (9-7) – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

Chicago (10-6) – Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Cincinnati (10-6) – Matt Elam, S, Florida

St. Louis – from Washington (10-6) – D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama

Minnesota (10-6) – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

Indianapolis (11-5) – Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA

Minnesota – from Seattle (11-5) – Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC

Green Bay (11-5) – Johnathan Hankins, DL, Ohio State

Houston (12-4) – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennesse

Denver (13-3) – Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida State

New England (12-4) – Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

Atlanta (13-3) – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

San Francisco (11-4-1) – Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

Baltimore (10-6) – Alec Ogletree*, ILB, Georgia

What’s up y’all this Blacker and this is my Post combine mock draft. Hope you guys enjoy reading my rambling nonsense.

 

  1. Kansas City – Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M – Andy Reid loves his OL men, this pick might have been a QB like  Geno Smith or Tyler Wilson if KC did not trade for Alex Smith.  KC also just released OT Eric Winston which should all but guarantee that Joeckel or another OT like Fisher will be the top pick.  If  the QB position gets inflated this draft KC may try to trade down but for the sake of this draft there will be no trades.
  2. Jacksonville – Dion Jordan OLB/ DE – Jacksonville needs pass rush ability. Dion Jordan brings exactly that to the table at 6 ft 6 248 he is a physical specimen. Jordan can play your typical 43 DE or could stand up and be a rush LB in the 34 or even play SAM in the 43. Jordan isn’t the most polished prospect, he has a lean frame and that could hurt him if he is a 43 DE.
  3. Oakland – Shariff Floyd DT Florida– I nearly put Star Lotulelei in this slot but Star has a heart condition that is still an enigma.  Floyd is a good DT who presents pass rush ability as well as run stopping ability with a high motor. My own honest assessment is to have him in the 2nd round as I do not see anything remarkably special with him. However, after a very impressive combine Floyd is being predicted as one of the fastest riser in the draft and I feel that you could see him gone in the top 10 of the draft.
  4. Philadelphia – Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan – Drafting Fisher would allow Philly to kick Herremans back inside to G and would allow them to fix the black hole of an OL they had last season. Fisher will be one hell of an LT one day in the future.
  5. Detroit – Dee Milliner CB Alabama – The Lions have had horrible secondary play for quite some time now, they have gambled in FA and the draft and it has not paid dividends. This is them righting the ship
  6. Cleveland – Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia – New DC Ray Horton should bring along the 34 D. Jones is a good 34 OLB. I am not one of Jones’s biggest supporters but Jones has scary pass rush ability off the edge. Jones has a health concern ( neck) but has been cleared .
  7. Arizona – Chance Warmack  OG Alabama – The OL is putrid.
  8. Buffalo – Geno Smith QB West Virginia – Geno is not the best QB in the draft and I don’t think he is going to have much success in the league but I digress. Geno possesses a strong-arm and showed off at the combine that he is more mobile than originally thought, he is a hard worker and is very well spoken, he has accuracy questions to answer as well but Buffalo thinks that he is the QB of the future and they ride the Geno train. Plus Ryan Fitzpatrick is their QB….. the only thing worse is Mark Sanchez
  9. NYJ – Ziggy Ansah OLB BYU – Ziggy Ansah is raw as all hell, he has only been playing football for 3 years now. However,  Ziggy oozes potential, the former track star shows his track speed at 270 lbs. Ziggy has the ability to play a lot of different positions in the 34. I think he is more suited to rush off the edge but could be used as a 5-tech as well.  Rex Ryan will love coaching Ansah.
  10. Tennessee – Bjorn Werner DE Florida State – In all honesty, If the draft unfolded this way, I would think they should trade down. However, I am not doing trades in this mock so we will continue.  Werner is the best pure 43 DE in the draft. He has a high motor and is a great run defender. Werner does not have as high of a ceiling as other players but has a very high floor.  Meaning that even if he is never a superstar he should put together a great career.
  11. San Diego –  Lane Johnson OT – Lane Johnson is an athletic OT that will give Rivers the protection that he has yearned for and by yearned I mean cried like a little baby
  12. Miami – Corradelle Patterson WR Tennessee – The best WR in the draft. Posses Size, Game breaking speed and consistent hands.  Patterson will give Miami the vertical threat they need.
  13. Tampa Bay –  Damontre Moore Texas A&M – Moore is one of my favorite prospects in the draft.  He could play OLB in the 34 but will be a 43 DE for Tampa. He possess a great first step and shows good strength at the point of attack. Moore had a less than impressive combine and that lead to him falling from being widely considered as a top 5 pick. I believe Moore would be a great addition to the already stellar Tampa DL.
  14. Carolina – Star Lotulelei DT Utah – The biggest downside with Star is his heart condition. If he checks out with that Carolina could get a steal here. He is an absolute mountain of a man with no character concerns at all.  Stonewalls against the run and shows the burst to create havoc against the pass every once in a while.
  15. New Orleans – Barkevious Mingo LSU – Hometown Hero KeKe Mingo stays in the Bayou.  New Orleans need pass rushes off the edge and Mingo has elite ability. He needs to fill out his frame some more but the potential to be a stud is there.
  16. St.Louis –  DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson – Hopkins plays bigger than his size, is extremely physical and runs great routes and always comes back to the ball and attacks at its highest point. Teams could be scared off by his 4.57 40 time but he is faster than that on field. Hopkins also shows the commitment to run block well.  When you look at Hopkins think of Roddy White.  Sam Bradford will finally have his #1 WR.
  17. Pittsburgh –  Sheldon Richardson DT/DE Mizzou – Pitt would like to find a Rush LB at this pick but at this point they are all gone, I don’t think they reach.  SO they instead bolster their pass rush from the 34 end position. The surprisingly athletic Richardson could be as high as a top 5 pick. Pitt gets real value here.
  18. Dallas –  Kenny Vaccaro S Texas – Dallas secondary is poop. Vaccaro is widely considered the best S in the class. It’s a no brainer here.
  19. NYG – Alec Ogletree LB Georgia –He is a top 10 talent that will fall due to character concerns.  Ogletree falling to  a team like the Giants will work out best for him and for the team. There is some risk involved but the payout is well worth it.
  20. Chicago – Jonathan Cooper OG UNC – They really want a OT here but there isn’t one worth the pick here. The line still needs to be upgraded and Cooper is the best OG on the board at this point.
  21. Cincinnati – Kevin Minter LB LSU – I think this will be the surprise pick. Minter is picked about 5 or 6 picks to early here but Minter is too versatile to not be the pick. He can play MIKE, WILL and SAM and is a very effective blitzer. Minter has the talent to be a great LB in this league and the Bengals want him.  They could also trade down and grab him later.
  22. St.Louis – Matt Elam FS Florida –  Elam brings attitude, the penchant for laying the lumber and high energy to the Rams.  Sometimes Elam gets overly aggressive and that leads to missed tackles but Elam is a fringe first rounder and  all he needs to do is impress one team.
  23. Minnesota– Keenan Allen WR Cal – The Vikings need someone other than Harvin to pass the ball. Allen has great size and underrated speed.  Allen will help take the pressure of Harvin and Peterson and open up this Offense even further.
  24. Indianapolis – John Jenkins NT Georgia –  6 ft 4 346 lbs.  Massive run defending DT and I believe he is the best DT in the class.  Jenkins has agility that you would not expect out of a man of this size. Jenkins is a bit one-dimensional because he is strictly a 34 NT and his ability to play all 3 downs is in question.
  25. Seattle – Justin Hunter WR Tennessee –  Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and an old Sidney Rice. Wilson needs a true #1. Hunter tore his ACL last year so there is an injury concern and disappeared in bigger games but Hunter is one of my favorite prospects because of his amazing leaping ability, long strides and deep speed. He fights for the ball at its highest point and is savvy route runner.  He shows me a little bit  AJ Green in his game.
  26. Green Bay – Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame – I don’t expect Jennings or Finley to be back in Green Bay. Eifert is a great TE prospect who has the ability to play outside as a WR. Eifert consistently challenges for the ball at its highest point and is a match up night mare for LB’s. Eifert lacks a bit in the run blocking department but Green Bay never runs anyways so he will be fine.
  27. Houston – Tavon Austin WR WVU – As good as the team is, they really lacked a BOOM threat on O.  Teams knew to key in on Arian Foster and take their chances with Andre Johnson. Tavon brings a homerun threat every time he touches the ball, this O just got a whole lot more scary.
  28. Denver – Kawann Short DT Purdue – Their DT’s suck. Kawann Short doesn’t. Next pick.
  29. New England –  Datone Jones DE UCLA – Jones absolutely tore up the Senior Bowl and impressed at the combine. Jones is  strong against the run and can contribute in the pass rush department.  He can beat you with the bull rush or he can beat you the edge. Jones could rise even higher through interviews and individual workouts.
  30. Atlanta – Sam Montgomery DE LSU – They could go RB here but RB is very deep this year.  Montgomery will help them fix their putrid pass rush.
  31. San Francisco –  Desmond Trufant CB Washington – Trufant had a great Senior Bowl and Combine and this pushes him above the other options here like Banks and Rhodes.  Trufant is physical with WR and owns  the ability to be a lockdown CB
  32. Baltimore – Eric Reid FS LSU –  This could be anyone in all honesty. It could be a WR, it could be a reach on a OT, it could be a NT, ILB or a OLB.  Who knows if Ed Reed will be in Baltimore next season and even if he is he needs to be replaced. Eric Reid is a good all around S prospect and the future for the Ravens secondary.

Top 25 Ranking (Post Combine)

The scouting combine has come and gone and with players moving up and down in terms of their draft stock I feel like it’s about time to show my post combine rankings for the 2013 class.

1. Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

2. Sharieff Flyod, DT, Florida

3. Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

4. Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

5. Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6. Ezikiel Ansah, DE, BYU

7. Dion Jordon, DE, Oregon

8. Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

9. Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

10. Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

11. Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

12. Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

13. Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

14. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

15. Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

16. Johnthan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

17. Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

18. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

19. Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

20. Matt Barkley, QB, USC

21. Manti Te’o , ILB, Notre Dame

22. Datone Jones, UCLA, DE

23. Zavier Gooden, OLB, Missouri

24. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

25. Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

I am currently working on a mock with explanations as of right now and should have it out some time next week. 

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Desmond Trufant

College: Washington

Position: Cornerback

Height: 5-11

Weight: 184 lbs

Position Rank: 4

Projected Round: Late 1st to mid-2nd round

The talented Washington Cornerback, Desmond Trufant is considered to be one of the top defensive backs in this year’s draft. Trufant who has two brothers already in the NFL, Marcus with Seattle and Isaiah with the Jets, had an outstanding week at the senior bowl and wasn’t too bad during the game neither. He was a first team all-Pac-12 defensive back this year, and is definitely one of the most experienced cornerbacks coming out of this year’s draft with his 47 starts at Washington. He is competitive and corner, who will get physical with wide receivers at the line of scrimmage no matter the size disparity.

 

Plays on the ball

Desmond Trufant in 47 games only had, 6 interceptions which for a Pac 12 DB where the passing game is the life and blood of so many teams in the conference, is really disappointing. He is a very passive corner who tends to play the receiver over making plays for the ball.

 

Vs. the Run

Trufant, from what have seen of him, recognizes run/pass quickly. He is one of the better corners in this year’s draft in with this recognition. He doesn’t shy away from making tackles in run support and will fight way through blocks and does a nice job of fighting under blocks to blow up screen passes or keep contain on outside runs.

Experience and Instincts

If there is one positive about playing in 47 games in college, it’s the experience you gain over time. From his tape as a freshman to his senior year, you could tell the dramatic change in his instincts. He also is very good at timing his jumps and defending the ball from its highest point from the wide out.

Conclusion

Overall I could see Turfant going into the Top 25 if he has an outstanding combine and pro day. Right now Trufant looks like he’s pegged into going at the end of day 1 or a early day 2 pick. Trufant is amongst the top corners in a draft filled with good quality depth and talent on the defensive side of the ball.  

Manti Te’o  Scouting Report.

Measurables

Height: 6 -1

Weight: 248

40 Time: 4.75

Manti Te’o vs Miami 

Manti Te’o vs. Stanford

Strengths:

  • + Plays the Game with Passion
  • + Smart
  • + Can read an offense pre-play
  • + Can follow the flow and attack downhill
  • + Great Leadership
  • +  Solid Tackler
  • + Good Blitzer

Weaknesses:

  • – Takes bad angles to the ball
  • –  Not elite in coverage against backs and TE
  • -Can get engulfed by lineman
  • –   Worry about his speed
  • –  Mental health?

Summary – Te’o is one of the more polarizing players in the country. What he lacks in raw athletic ability he makes up for in amazing instincts and leadership.  When you watch game film of Te’o you realize he is always around the ball, Te’o had 7 Interceptions this past season and when you see those interceptions a lot of them are Te’o being in the right place at the right time and make an amazing play on the ball. Manti can be exploited in coverage; he got lost in the NC game vs. Alabama and allowed a TD to Michael Williams. He also got totally destroyed by Alabama’s line (as did the rest of the of Notre Dame) which could be a worry because that is the caliber of OL he will be playing the NFL.

Overall – Te’o is a solid LB, he won’t be a stud in the league but he has the ability to play SAM and MIKE in the 43 and play ILB in the 34. I don’t see him being as effective as a 43 WILL.  Te’o obviously has some other issues to workout, the whole cat fishing and fake girlfriend cover up is a red flag. How he explains that in interviews will be interesting to say the least.  I think Te’o is a good LB but is not the elite LB he was built up to be in the collegiate ranks. That being said he should still be  at least a 2nd round pick

Draft Value –   Late 1st to Mid 2nd.

NFL Comparison – Perry Riley LB Washington Redskins

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Kennan Allen

College: California

Position: Wide Receiver

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210 lbs

Position Rank: 1

Projected Round: Top 15

Kennan Allen is my favorite offensive player this year and may be tied for my favorite player of this year’s draft next to BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah. I have followed closely Kennan Allen’s career ever since he was a freshman and he quickly become one of my favorite players in the country. He is an absolutely great route runner and if you combined his quickness, strength, and size he is an extremely lethal receiver at getting yards after the catch. He has the vertical ability, hands, and concentration to catch the ball at its lowest to its highest points. I’m assuming that you must be thinking that if this guy could do it all then why isn’t he getting as much hype as a AJ Green or Julio Jones coming out (by no means am I comparing him to those 2 coming out). Well there are many answers for this, one was that he missed the final 3 games of the season due to knee injury. Another one was that he had to deal with a pretty dire quarterback situation at Cal, where his brother, Zac Maynard, was less than stellar for most of the season for a pretty bad and banged up Cal team.

If Allen’s knee is fine from the injury he suffered in the latter part of the year is fine and if he has a great combine like I am predicting him to be, I could see this Allen securing his spot as the top wideout coming out of this year’s draft and possibly a top 10 selection.

Speed and quickness

From the numerous games I have seen of Kennan Allen, there was always something that separated him from other 6-3 wideouts, and that was his speed and quickness. He has a decent release of the line of scrimmage and knows how to use his feet to get open. And once he catches the ball he is always a threat to gain 10-20 yards more. He was often used in screens in a lot while at Cal for this reason.

Hands

Allen has dependable but not perfect Aj Green type hands. He may drop a few here and there due to a lack of concentration, a problem that many thought Julio Jones had coming out. Look out how its turned out for him.

Deep ball ability

Because of Maynard not having the arm that most college quarterbacks have, Kennan Allen rarely ran deep patterns and when he was involved in one, the ball was usually under thrown. He certainly has the speed and vertical ability to have this part of the game be one of his strengths but this will virtually remain an unknown part of Allen’s game until he’s in the NFL because of the lack of film of him actually running a deep pattern.

Conclusion

Brandon Marshall is probably the best comparison for Kennan Allen as both are big bodied receivers with the ability to make defenders miss with their feet and get yards after the catch with speed and quickness. I might be overrating Allen in the eyes of some, but if feel like if Kennan Allen falls to the right team, I could see him being one of the best receivers